Future Scenarios: Wage and Employment Trends

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future scenarios itpnyu scenario planning

Suggestions from classmates

  • Breakdown by function, title, industry, gender
  • What jobs are the fastest growing, fastest shrinking?
  • Get a ~50 year historical window.
  • Make sure to normalize and adjust currency units over time and space.
    • PPP or big mac index
  • Look at influences of minimum wage changes.
  • Renumeration trends over time

Methodology

All data comes from two different United States Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys:

  • Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey
    • “Designed to measure employment, hours, and earnings with significant industrial and geographic detail”, BLS
    • Surveys employers
  • Current Population Survey (CPS)
    • “Designed to measure employment and unemployment with significant demographic detail”, BLS
    • Surveys households

Code

  • Extracting data, transforming data, and generating static visualizations:
  • Code for interactive visualization:

Current Employment Snapshot

2016 Total Employment by Supersector, Industry

  • Healthcare, local government, hospitality service, and retail are the biggest employers in 2016.
  • Hover over the legend to filter.
  • Hover over bubble to see full industry name.
  • Toggle changes base year
  • Marker size: 2016 wages

Wage and Employment Changes, 2016 vs past years

Base year: 1990 2009

Take aways

  • Long term trends (since 1990):
    • Financial services have grown wages the most.
    • Healthcare has grown employment the most.
    • Logistics has growing employment, but real wages are shrinking.
  • Short term trends and recession recovery (since 2009):
    • Several business services have risen to be closer to the positive growth frontier.
    • Financial services remains at frontier for both real wage and employment growth.
    • Traditional media (newspapers, radio, and magazines) are all shrinking in terms of total employment.
    • Motor vehicle manufacturing has recovered since the recession in total employment, but real wages are still declining since 1990.

Gender Gap

Median Usual Weekly Earnings by Gender

  • The gender wage gap is still very significant.
  • The wage gap between genders is gradually getting smaller.
  • The wage gap is shrinking because women’s real wages are increasing as men’s real wages are stagnant.

Female : Male Wage Ratio

  • Different occupations are moving in different directions.

Below is the same data in chart below, just visualizing the derivatives (slope angles):

Change in Female : Male Wage Ratio, 2000 to 2017

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