Future Scenarios: Wage and Employment Trends

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future scenarios itpnyu scenario planning

Questions from classmates

  • by function / title / industry
  • fastest growing, fastest shrinking
  • ~50 year historical window (since the 1970)
  • adjusted over time and space (PPP, Big Mac index, inflation adjusted)
  • annotations for changes in minimum wage
  • Renumeration trends
  • by gender


All data comes from two different United States Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys.

  • Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey
    • “Designed to measure employment, hours, and earnings with significant industrial and geographic detail”, BLS
  • Current Population Survey (CPS)
    • “Designed to measure employment and unemployment with significant demographic detail”, BLS


  • Extracting data, transforming data, and generating static visualizations:
  • Code for interactive visualization:

Current Employment Snapshot

2016 Total Employment by Supersector, Industry

  • Healthcare, Local government, Hospitality service, and retail are the biggest employers.
  • Hover over the legend to filter.
  • Hover over bubble to see full industry name.
  • Toggle changes base year
  • Marker size: 2016 wages

Wage and Employment Changes, 2016 vs past years

Base year: 1990 2009

Take aways

  • Long term trends (since 1990):
    • Financial services have grown wages the most
    • Healthcare has grown employment the most
    • Logistics has growing employment, but real wages are shrinking
  • Short term trends and recession recovery (since 2009):
    • Several business services near the positive growth frontier.

Gender Gap

Median Usual Weekly Earnings by Gender

  • The wage gap between genders is getting smaller, overall.

Female : Male Wage Ratio

  • Different occupations are moving in different directions.

Below is the same data in chart below, just visualizing the derivatives (slope angles):

Change in Female : Male Wage Ratio, 2000 to 2017